Skip to main content
Tool: get_market_regime One reading: long or flat, with the date it last changed and the two independent inputs that produced it.

​
Two readings, and either one can say stay out

They are independent. One is on-chain valuation, the other is a central bank’s balance sheet. The signal says be in only when neither is asking you to be out. Requiring both to agree before leaving would be the weaker rule, and it is not the one used here.

​
It is measured in months, not days

This is not a reason to change a plan somebody is holding. Over fourteen years it has switched 17 times: roughly once a year. A signal that turns once a year cannot be the thing consulted before a trade, and reading it that way is the main way it gets misused.
The current reading, as of 2026-09-12, has stood since 2026-02-06.

​
What it has been worth

Measured on BTC from 2012-07-16, with a 730-day lookback and a 0.75 band: The exposure figure is the one worth sitting with. It was out of the market for nearly two-thirds of that period, and the drawdown it avoided is the whole argument for a signal like this, not the return, which a simple hold also delivered over the same span with far deeper falls along the way.

​
The inputs are readable on their own

get_macro returns the balance sheet arithmetic this is computed from, for anybody who would rather see the input than the verdict.