Skip to main content
Tool: get_forecast Four things in one call: the odds an asset ends a month above each price, what is priced into each upcoming Fed meeting, the rate curve those meetings move, and where option open interest already sits. None of it is a forecast. Each figure is what somebody is currently paying to be right, which is a better input than an opinion and a worse one than a fact.

Odds by strike

The prediction market’s probability that an asset ends a month above each strike, with the money behind each one. As of 2026-09-12: 121 rungs across BTC and ETH. A rung is a price and a probability, so the ladder is a distribution rather than a forecast. Read the shape, not any single rung.
Volume is reported beside every rung for a reason. A 3% probability on a rung with a few hundred dollars behind it is not a market view, it is one person. The odds mean something in proportion to what is staked on them.

What is priced into each Fed meeting

The next four meetings, each with the expected move in basis points, the probability of a hike, the probability of a cut, and the volume behind them. For the 2026-09-16 meeting, as of 2026-09-12: +20.1 bps expected, an 80.2% chance of a hike against 0.4% for a cut, on $135m of volume.

The curve those meetings move

The rates the decision acts on, so the expectation above sits beside the thing it is about: An 80% chance of a hike means one thing with a 10y–2y spread of +0.39 and another with an inverted one. That is why they arrive together.

Where the option market has already committed

Open interest by expiry, with the busiest strike in each. Odds say what people think; open interest says where they have already put money and cannot quietly change their mind.
This part is only as deep as the option-chain stream, which begins 2026-09-10, a daily Deribit snapshot per instrument. Where it holds nothing for a window, it returns nothing rather than an empty-looking zero.

It is an expectation, not a prediction

Every figure here is what somebody is currently paying to be right. That makes it a better input than a forecast and a worse one than a fact. The prediction market was wrong about plenty; what it is never wrong about is what it cost to disagree with it on the day.