> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.defiloops.com/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# The slow signal

> Whether a two-year signal is asking to be long or flat, from on-chain valuation and net liquidity, and what it has been worth

**Tool:** `get_market_regime`

One reading: **long** or **flat**, with the date it last changed and the two
independent inputs that produced it.

## Two readings, and either one can say stay out

| input                            | what it asks                                                                                                       |
| -------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| **MVRV against its own history** | is the market's value stretched against what holders actually paid for their coins                                 |
| **Net liquidity**                | Fed assets, less the Treasury's account, less reverse repo. Is money being added to the system, or drained from it |

They are independent. One is on-chain valuation, the other is a central bank's
balance sheet. The signal says be in only when neither is asking you to be out.
Requiring both to agree before leaving would be the weaker rule, and it is not
the one used here.

## It is measured in months, not days

<Warning>
  This is not a reason to change a plan somebody is holding. Over fourteen years it
  has switched **17 times**: roughly once a year. A signal that turns once a year
  cannot be the thing consulted before a trade, and reading it that way is the main
  way it gets misused.
</Warning>

The current reading, as of 2026-09-12, has stood **since 2026-02-06**.

## What it has been worth

Measured on BTC from 2012-07-16, with a 730-day lookback and a 0.75 band:

|                      |        |
| -------------------- | ------ |
| total return         | 156×   |
| compound annual rate | 42.9%  |
| maximum drawdown     | -41.2% |
| time in the market   | 37.8%  |
| switches             | 17     |

The exposure figure is the one worth sitting with. It was **out of the market for
nearly two-thirds** of that period, and the drawdown it avoided is the whole
argument for a signal like this, not the return, which a simple hold also
delivered over the same span with far deeper falls along the way.

## The inputs are readable on their own

[get\_macro](/data/macro) returns the balance sheet arithmetic this is computed
from, for anybody who would rather see the input than the verdict.


## Related topics

- [Words we use](/concepts.md)
- [Macro, on-chain and stablecoins](/data/macro.md)
- [What we hold](/data/streams.md)
- [Every tool](/tools/reference.md)
- [DeFiLoops](/index.md)