> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.defiloops.com/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# What the market expects

> Prediction-market odds by strike, what is priced into each Fed meeting, the rate curve those meetings move, and where option open interest already sits

**Tool:** `get_forecast`

Four things in one call: the odds an asset ends a month above each price, what
is priced into each upcoming Fed meeting, the rate curve those meetings move, and
where option open interest already sits.

None of it is a forecast. Each figure is what somebody is currently paying to be
right, which is a better input than an opinion and a worse one than a fact.

## Odds by strike

The prediction market's probability that an asset ends a month **above** each
strike, with the money behind each one. As of 2026-09-12: **121 rungs** across
BTC and ETH.

A rung is a price and a probability, so the ladder is a distribution rather than
a forecast. Read the shape, not any single rung.

<Note>
  Volume is reported beside every rung for a reason. A 3% probability on a rung
  with a few hundred dollars behind it is not a market view, it is one person. The
  odds mean something in proportion to what is staked on them.
</Note>

## What is priced into each Fed meeting

The next **four** meetings, each with the expected move in basis points, the
probability of a hike, the probability of a cut, and the volume behind them.

For the 2026-09-16 meeting, as of 2026-09-12: **+20.1 bps expected**, an 80.2%
chance of a hike against 0.4% for a cut, on \$135m of volume.

## The curve those meetings move

The rates the decision acts on, so the expectation above sits beside the thing it
is about:

| series           | reading | as of      |
| ---------------- | ------- | ---------- |
| policy rate      | 3.63%   | 2026-09-09 |
| 2-year treasury  | 4.43%   | 2026-09-09 |
| 10-year treasury | 4.83%   | 2026-09-09 |
| 10y minus 2y     | +0.39   | 2026-09-10 |

An 80% chance of a hike means one thing with a 10y–2y spread of +0.39 and
another with an inverted one. That is why they arrive together.

## Where the option market has already committed

Open interest by expiry, with the busiest strike in each. Odds say what people
think; open interest says where they have already put money and cannot quietly
change their mind.

<Note>
  This part is only as deep as the option-chain stream, which begins 2026-09-10,
  a daily Deribit snapshot per instrument. Where it holds nothing for a window, it
  returns nothing rather than an empty-looking zero.
</Note>

## It is an expectation, not a prediction

Every figure here is what somebody is currently paying to be right. That makes it
a better input than a forecast and a worse one than a fact. The prediction market
was wrong about plenty; what it is never wrong about is what it cost to disagree
with it on the day.


## Related topics

- [What we hold](/data/streams.md)
- [DeFiLoops](/index.md)
- [Every tool](/tools/reference.md)
- [FAQ](/faq.md)
- [Running it without you](/automation.md)