> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.defiloops.com/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Macro, on-chain and stablecoins

> The Federal Reserve series, bitcoin and ether valuation histories, and stablecoin supply: the inputs behind the slow signal

**Tools:** `get_macro`, and [get\_market\_regime](/tools/get-market-regime) for the
verdict computed from it.

Three streams that answer the same question from different directions: how much
money is in the system, and what is it currently paying for.

## Federal Reserve series

**25 series, 79,523 daily rows, from 2010-01-01**, synced from FRED.

| what          | series                                                                   |
| ------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| policy        | policy rate, SOFR                                                        |
| the curve     | 3-month, 2-year, 10-year, 30-year, 10y–2y, 10y–3m, 10-year real          |
| expectations  | breakeven inflation, VIX                                                 |
| balance sheet | Fed assets, Treasury general account, reverse repo, reserve balances     |
| money         | M2 (monthly and weekly)                                                  |
| credit        | AAA and BAA spreads to 10-year                                           |
| conditions    | national financial conditions, St. Louis financial stress                |
| other         | dollar indices (broad and advanced-foreign), WTI crude, Nasdaq composite |

<Warning>
  **Each series is shifted by its own publication lag.** The Fed's balance sheet is
  published weekly and days behind; the policy rate is daily. Net liquidity is Fed
  assets less the Treasury account less reverse repo: three series with three
  different lags, so subtracting today's published values would compare numbers
  that describe different days.

  The arithmetic lives in one place, and `get_macro` returns the **inputs** rather
  than the verdict so the shift is inspectable rather than assumed.
</Warning>

## On-chain valuation

Daily price, market capitalisation and **realised capitalisation** for BTC from
**2010-07-18** (5,899 days) and ETH from **2015-08-08** (4,052 days).

Realised cap values every coin at the price it last moved at, rather than at
today's price. The ratio between the two, MVRV, is what holders collectively
paid against what the market currently says, and scoring it against its own
history is one of the two inputs to [the slow signal](/tools/get-market-regime).

## Stablecoin supply

Circulating supply per stablecoin, daily, **USDT from 2017-11-29** (3,209 days)
and eight others behind it.

Latest reading, 2026-09-11:

|           | circulating   |
| --------- | ------------- |
| USDT      | \$183.5bn     |
| USDC      | \$74.2bn      |
| USDS      | \$6.4bn       |
| DAI       | \$4.8bn       |
| USDe      | \$4.5bn       |
| PYUSD     | \$2.8bn       |
| TUSD      | \$0.5bn       |
| FDUSD     | \$0.3bn       |
| **total** | **\$309.6bn** |

Stablecoin supply is the closest thing on-chain has to a money supply: it is
capital that has already been converted and is sitting in the system waiting.
It is kept **per issuer and never only as a total**, because the total can hold
steady while the composition moves entirely, which is itself the reading.

## Prediction markets

Polymarket, snapshotted daily: a price ladder per asset per month, and the odds
on each upcoming Fed meeting. The snapshot of 2026-09-12 holds **121 ladder
rungs** across BTC and ETH over four months, and **four Fed meetings**.

Read by [get\_forecast](/tools/get-forecast), where the ladder sits beside the
rate curve it is implicitly about.

<Note>
  These are snapshots with an `as_of` date, not a continuous history: a rung
  appears when the market lists it and stops when the month resolves, so counting
  rows across dates measures how often the sync ran rather than how deep the data
  goes. Read the latest snapshot, which every answer stamps.

  A prediction market's odds are only meaningful with their volume beside them, so
  volume and liquidity are stored per rung and passed through to every answer.
</Note>

## Where these streams stop

| stream            | from           | rows                          |
| ----------------- | -------------- | ----------------------------- |
| FRED series       | 2010-01-01     | 79,523 across 25 series       |
| On-chain BTC      | 2010-07-18     | 5,899 days                    |
| On-chain ETH      | 2015-08-08     | 4,052 days                    |
| Stablecoin supply | 2017-11-29     | 3,209 days, 9 issuers         |
| Prediction ladder | daily snapshot | 121 rungs, 2 assets, 4 months |
| Fed meeting odds  | daily snapshot | 4 meetings                    |


## Related topics

- [What we hold](/data/streams.md)
- [DeFiLoops](/index.md)
- [Every tool](/tools/reference.md)
- [The slow signal](/tools/get-market-regime.md)
- [The catalogue](/adapters/catalogue.md)